Is the Future of the Web HTML5

Apparently this week it is…Glad everyone (Microsoft, Google, Apple) got on the same page this week that HTML 5 is the future of the Web. I will even go as far as agreeing also.  Keep reading because I’m not saying Flash, Silverlight or other proprietary plug-ins are dead.  Why you ask?

First, HTML, CSS, and JavaScript for the foreseeable future will continue to be the vehicle to reach the broadest audience.  The problem though is even if HTML 5 succeeds in rallying all the major players on a common. consistent rendering you still have the legacy of older browsers.  Look at the spread (here, and here) of old browsers even before introducing HTML 5 to the mix.  Compare that to Flash or Silverlight version spread which is almost all on a single version of the plug-in.  So for the foreseeable future HTML based solutions will have to contend with an ugly mix of browser capabilities requiring special coding and testing for different browser combinations. ugh!

Mobile is the exception..Mobile devices are replaced faster…Mobile devices are starting to be more upgradeable (e.g IPhone) allowing them to pickup newer changes faster. So quickly I believe HTML 5 will be the standard for mobile device content where you don’t need the rich experience provided by the native applications.  I believe though most significant applications on mobile won’t be browser / HTML based but built using the native tools to really stand out and provide a good experience.  That means Cocoa/ObjectiveC on Apple, and Silverlight / .NET on Windows Phone for example.  Adobe is getting the squeeze and is running scared they don’t have a place in the new mobile world. 

Apple is disruptive…sometimes a good thing, sometimes not. IPhone is good because it woke up the rest of the smartphone world to the fact they were moving too slow, and lacked the user experience.  IPad is good – it gets people using a new device form and will open up a size device in the overall device continuum.  In the case of Flash on IPad/IPhone – Jobs should have just said – it’s our platform and we don’t want to risk losing the control we currently have.  Apple is disruptive because by blocking Adobe Flash, and while not targeted, clearly Silverlight as well Apple effectively ensures no single vendors proprietary plug-in gets a leg up.

In the end it’s a lot of high stakes technology politics with each of the key players trying to protect their turf and expand.  For us developers we have to deal with the real world demands.  For me, that means HTML (HTML 5 as its ready) for common content that needs broad reach, and Silverlight for richer, more powerful applications.  By the time HTML 5 reaches critical mass, my money says at least 1 if not 2 versions of both Flash and Silverlight have been released and in use by end users.  That’s a lot of missed innovation if you ignore it, translating to lots of missed business opportunities if you buy the hype that all you should do is HTML. Do you own homework before you blindly read a headline and follow the crowd.

So what would I like to see? Simple, we should all realize proprietary plug-ins will always outpace standards that require consensus.   Further, having a common foundation of HTML is good and supports plug-in proprietary innovation.  Apple should just give up, charge Adobe and Microsoft some decent fee for getting Flash/Silverlight on their platform and let the best plug-in or developer tool win…

What’s your take?

Comments

[joe]

I just hope source architecture and good technology come into play into the argument. A client platform of JavaScript, Canvas and HTML5 is not a credible scalable technology stack.